毕业论文-人民币升值对我国经济的影响分析.doc

PAGE IV PAGE １９ PAGE I 摘 要 今年年初之际，关于人民币升值的猜测，再一次风生水起。两年来，几乎每一次美元下跌，都会引发人民币汇率升值的强烈呼声。这不难理解，美元贬值，与美元挂钩的人民币自然更加值钱，更愿意被投资者持有。持有强势货币是金融市场再普通不过的选择。美元日益疲软，而人民币越来越强势，国际上出现了一股强大的压人民币汇率升值的势力。 面对人民币汇率升值的压力，的确是一个两难的选择，人民币汇率升值可使我国在吸引外资、偿还外债及购买国外商品时获得一些好处，但人民币汇率升值会使我国出口商品的相对价格提高而抑制出口。因此，我国政府在一定的国际压力下到底能否采取升值举措，根本上取决于国内经济发展的需要、进出口结构状况以及对国际市场商品、货币供求关系的综合判断。 人民币汇率升值是把“双刃剑”，它对我国经济的发展有利又有瞥，本文主要分析了影响人民币汇率升值的因素以及人民币汇率升值对我国经济的正面影响和负面影响，并预测了2006年人民币汇率的走势。 人民币汇率的升值和贬值在不同的历史时期各有侧重，不是一成不变的，是随着我国经济形势的变化而变化的。不能笼统地认为人民币汇率升值一定比贬值好或坏，要具体问题具体分析，因时而异。 关键词 人民币汇率 升值 原因 经济 影响 Abstract At the beginning of this year, once again people presume that the RMB rate of exchange will appreciate. In the past two years, almost every USD declines will cause the strong noise of shouting of RMB rate of exchange appreciation. This is not difficult to comprehend that with the USD depreciation, the Chinese money that are links with USD is more worth money, and of course are more willing to be held by the investors. Holding a strong currency is a common choice in the financial market. USD is increasingly weak, but RMB is more and more pre-eminent. The international market appears an influence which presses RMB rate of exchange appreciation strongly. Facing the pressure of the appreciation of RMB rate of exchange, it is really hard to decide that whether we should increase the rate of RMB. The appreciation of the RMB rate of exchange can make our country acquire some advantages while drawing on foreign capital and compensating foreign loan and purchasing foreign merchandise, but at the same time, the relevant price of export will increase and it will restrict the export of our products. Therefore, under the certain international pressure, whether our government can raise the rate of exchange is decided by comprehensive judgment of the economic development condition, the import and export structure, the international market merchandise and the regulation of supply and demand. The RMB rate of exchange apprec