毕业设计论文__基于灰色预测法物流需求预测研究分析.docVIP

山东交通学院 毕业生毕业论文（设计） 物流需求预测研究分析 院(系)别 交通与物流工程系 专 业 物流工程 原 创 声 明 论文作者(签字)： 日期：2008年6月5日 摘 要 物流作为一个新兴的产业，已经成为社会经济发展的重要建设要素。物流的需求与预测作为物流发展的一个重要的课题，也已经成为众多企业和专家研究的重点。 本文首先阐述了在对国内外研究现状和论文的研究意义进行了一些总结，简单地介绍了物流需求预测相关理论，并探讨简单总结了一些比较常用的预测方法。然后，重点讨论了灰色预测方法的概念和其在物流需求预测中的应用，介绍了几种基本的灰色预测模型。随后，通过对2000~2005年安民物流公司业务量的系统分析，运用灰色系统理论，建立了一系列的灰色预测模型，对未来五年的业务量进行了预测。最后，通过对不同模型的预测结果的进行了比较分析，得到了公司业务量较为合理的预测模型。实验表明最终的预测模型是合理、有效的。 灰色系统理论应用于物流需求预测，建模方法简单，精度较高，具有一定的理论依据和现实意义。 关键词：物流，需求预测，灰色理论 Abstract Logistics as an emerging industry, has become an important socio-economic development of building elements. Logistics and forecast the demand for logistics development as an important issue, many enterprises have also become the focus of the study and experts. First of all issues on the domestic and international research papers on the status and significance of a number of summary, the logistics demand forecast on the theory and simple summed up some of the more commonly used method of forecasting. Focused on the grey forecasting methods and the concept of logistics in its prediction of demand on several basic grey model. By 2000 to 2005 for all of the logistics business systems analysis, the use of grey system theory, the establishment of a series of grey model, the volume of business in the next five years to predict. Finally, the different models predict the results of a comparative analysis, the companys business volume is more reasonable prediction model. Experiments show that the final prediction model is a reasonable and effective. Grey theory applied in the logistics system to forecast demand, modeling method is simple, high precision, has a theoretical basis and practical significance. 你的翻译有挺多地方不通顺，调整完中文摘要再翻译一下，然后在疏通疏通就好了。 Key words: Logistics,Demand Forecast, Grey Theory 目 录 前 言 1 1 绪论 2 1.1 论文的研究背景和意义 2 1.1.1 研究背景 2 1.1