房地产投资对国民经济的影响.doc

摘要 中国经济经过30多年的高速增长，房地产行业已经发展成为中国各个地方的经济支柱产业，成为推动经济增长的一个不可忽视的力量。房地产的发展也为经济的增长做出了不可磨灭的贡献。但是，持续增长的房地产业随着价格不断地上升，已经不单单是影响了中国正常的经济发展，而且还成了一个民生问题，衍生出了比较严重的社会问题。使得中央的调控政策不得不多次对其进行调整。07年美国次贷危机爆发以来，更是波及了整个世界的经济，导致长期经济高速发展的中国不得不面临怎样保持经济增长的问题。四万亿的投资，再次把房地产行业作为了引领中国经济复苏的领头雁。 房地产在中国经济和社会中起着举足轻重的作用，一方面以住宅为主的房地产业，在拉动经济的增长，扩大了人民的就业面增加了就业岗位；另一方面，房地产的高速持续发展也得益于中国经济的高速发展，可以提高农民的可支配收入以及加快中国城市化的进程。房地产作为支柱产业，涉及到了国家上百种行业，产业链长，关联度大，房地产行业的健康与否直接影响了上下游众多产业的发展，尤其是生活消费品的发展。本文选取近年来的经济和房地产数据以及相关行业的数据，使用计量经济学的理论与方法对我国房地产行业对国民经济以及相关的行业的影响进行了探索，通过分析得出了一些结论，为此还提出了一些相关的意见和建议。 关键字：房地产投资； GDP；格兰杰因果检验 ；VAR模型； Abstract After 30 years rapid growth of the Chinese economy, the real estate industry has developed into the economic pillar industries in different places in China, known as a force to be reckoned in promoting economic growth. Real estate development has made an indelible contribution to economic growth. However, the growth in real estate prices with the constantly rising, has not only affect Chinas normal economic development, but also became a livelihood issues, derived from the more serious social problems.Central control policies have had to repeatedly adjust them. Since the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, spread to the entire world economy, leading to long-term rapid economic development of China had to face the problem of how to maintain economic growth. Four trillion investment, again the real estate industry as the leading pack to lead Chinas economic recovery. Real estate plays an important role in Chinas economy and society, on the one hand, predominantly residential real estate sector in stimulating economic growth, expanded employment opportunities for peoples jobs; the other hand, real estate, high-speedsustained development also benefited from Chinas rapid economic development, farmers can increase in disposable income of Chinas urbanization process.Real estate as a pillar industry, involving hundreds of national industry, the industrial chain, associate degree, the health o