a de a agencias.pptVIP

Michel H Bouchet/CERAM (c) La Crisis financiera en Asia en 1998 y la miopia de la agencias de clasificacion de riesgo ESAN 2006 Michel-Henry Bouchet – CERAM/Finconet Ephra?m Clark - Middlesex University Bertrand Groslambert - CERAM Plano Introduccion Risk perception and rating agencies Financial Crisis, Herd Instinct and Spill-over Effect The actual Economic and Financial Situation Empirical Study Conclusions The Asian Financial Crisis Two Main Features Abrupt Crisis end-1997 Currency devaluations Stock market collapses IFIs and rating agencies caught off guard Spill-over Effect From Thailand to Asian countries From Asian to world-wide stock markets From Asia to other EMCs in Latin America (Brazil) and Eastern Europe (Russia) The Macro-economic Situation - I The “tigers”: seemingly “sound” economic situation Good macroeconomic performance until 1996 The Macro-economic Situation - II A seemingly sound economic situation A prudent fiscal policy + A controlled inflation rate The Macro-economic Situation- III A seemingly sound economic situation A strong investment rate + high saving rates Trade liberalization as dynamic growth engine The Macro-economic Situation - IV A seemingly sound economic situation Current account deficit but large FDI (non debt-creating flows) Official reserve assets rising till end-1996 Interest/Export ratios between 3% (Korea Malaysia) and 10% (Indonesia) The Perceived Situation V “Asia’s most distinguishing macroeconomic feature over the past few decades has been a very high saving rate. With an average saving rate of 30% of GDP, Asian powerhouses were able to garner the resources to invest in growth without over-reliance on foreign savings, hence without resorting to debt financing”. Euromoney/Deutsche Bank 2000 Guide to Asian Debt Markets Country Risk Ratings Advantages/ Pros simple shrinks a large number of variables into one single grade cross-country comparison comparison across time reliable for smooth risk evolution Shortcomings/Con