耶鲁大学金市场英文文本Financial_MarketsLecture_21_Transcript.docVIP

Financial Markets: Lecture 21 Transcript Professor Robert Shiller: I wanted first to just think back a little bit about the lecture we got from Steve Schwarzman on Friday. Before he came, I talked with him in my office and I had the audacity to ask him if he thought there was any chance that his fortune was just due to luck. I said, why we have this efficient markets theory in finance that says that nobody can beat the market. So, what do you think he said? Well, obviously he believes in himself, but Im inclined to believe in him also. Efficient markets theory never sounded right; one thing about efficient markets theory that has always bothered me is this idea that the so-called smart money sets prices in the market. The thing that bothers me about it is, who is the smart money, anyway? Its as if its all or nothing thing; theres the smart money and then its the dumb money and the smart money rules. Arent there all different gradations of intelligence and insight? Its not like--why should there be just one level of smart money? So, I think he probably exemplifies a higher level of smart money than smart. I think a lot of mistakes people make in judging financial markets is being easily impressed by someones stockbroker or someones analyst who seems very smart and is very smart, but may not be enough to outsmart the markets. Thats the lesson of efficiency, especially when youre young. I think you may not realize how many smart people there are in the world, so when youre dealing in a--trying to win in financial markets--you have to take account of who is really out there and how much insight and effort and research are they putting into their trading. Do you really think you can beat that? Thats the lesson of efficient markets. I dont think the lesson is that you cant--its impossible for anyone no matter how smart to beat the market. Now of course, Albert Einstein never made any money in the stock market. In fact, TIAA-CREF, the pension fund, had an ad campaign in