环境水文学Chapter9.ppt

Principle of Hydrology, BNU Principle of Hydrology, BNU June 11, 2009 Principle of Hydrology, BNU * Chapter 9 Statistical Methods and Frequency Analysis Prof. Zongxue XU June 11, 2009 Principle of Hydrology, BNU * Objectives Probability, frequency, return period Probability theory applied to hydrology Probability distribution applied to hydrology Frequency analysis Pearson Type III method June 11, 2009 Principle of Hydrology, BNU * Random Variables Definition A variable that demonstrates variability that is not sufficiently explained by analytical measures of physical processes Examples Precipitation Runoff … June 11, 2009 Principle of Hydrology, BNU * Continuous/Discrete Random Variables Continuous variables Random variables that may take on all values in the range of occurrence, including figures differing only by an infinitesimal amount Discrete variables Random variables that are restricted to specific, incremental values June 11, 2009 Principle of Hydrology, BNU * Probability Distribution Definition A graph of probability in which random variables, either continuous or discrete, are characterized by the distribution of probabilities attached to the specific values that the variable may take on. June 11, 2009 Principle of Hydrology, BNU * Cumulative Distribution Function Definition (CDF) A graph of the probability that any outcome in X is less than or equal to a stated, limiting value x. June 11, 2009 Principle of Hydrology, BNU * Statistics Mean Variance/standard deviation Coefficient of variation Skewness/Cofficient of skewness June 11, 2009 Principle of Hydrology, BNU * Mean/Variance Mean Variance Standard deviation s Coefficient of variation June 11, 2009 Principle of Hydrology, BNU * Coefficient of Skewness For symmetrical distribution: Cs=0 For right skewness: Cs>0 For left skewness: Cs<0 June 11, 2009 Principle of Hydrology, BNU * Continuous Probability Distribution Normal distribution Lognormal distribution