Financial Crises Analysis the Sub-prime crisis.PPTVIP

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Financial Crises Analysis the Sub-prime crisis.PPT

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. French and German banks highly involved In PIIGS BIS (2009) Greece Spain Ireland Italy Portugal Total. Capital reserve French b. 75.2 219.6 60.3 511.4 44.7 579.3 German b. 45.0 237.9 183.8 189.7 47.4 565.2 * Studium general - 06/10/2011 Depreciation of the Euro vis a vis of other currencies is the next step, if Euro still exist… * Studium general - 06/10/2011 Policy recommendations: - Fiscal Policy (SGP and its implementation, the ESF and fiscal federalism). Avoid deflation.. - Monetary Policy: Role of the ECB (not quasi fiscal operations). - Exchange rate stabilization: A Future for Euro? - Debt restructuration (Greece) – exit option. * Studium general - 06/10/2011 Political Decisions have to be quickly taken . Within Europe: Eurobonds, restructuration of the Greek debt, fiscal policy coordination,.. . In the world: Intervention of the BIRC, IMF,... For a new world order. * Studium general - 06/10/2011 Conclusions My vision of the future: Pessimistic 2012: election year – expect no courageous political decision. On the edge of deflation (brain drain,..) Crisis almost out of control. Studium general - 06/10/2011 * * Bertrand Candelon Financial Crises Analysis * Studium general - 06/10/2011 Studium general - 06/10/2011 Sequence of the Sub-Prime crisis: 1. US Housing Market Collapse. 2. Bank distress: US-Europe-ROW. 3. Stock Market Crash. 4. Economic Recession. 5. Sovereign Debt Crisis .….. * The strongest crisis since 1929? The same causes, the same errors ? Where do we go? Studium general - 06/10/2011 * 1 - What is a financial crisis? 2 - The origins of the crises. 3 - Crisis Mutation 4 - The Current crisis. 5 - A European Crisis * Studium general - 06/10/2011 1- What is a financial crisis? 1. Wikipedia: ” Situation, when money demand exceeds money supply” . Temporary event . Liquidity problem. Frederic Mishkin: ”Nonlinear disruption,..., so