Probability学习课程.pptVIP

Summary Question 1: P(+) = .00599 + .00994 = .01593 Question 2: two sequences of branches lead to positive test; only 1 sequence represented people who have HIV. P(person has HIV given that test is positive) =.00599/(.00599+.00994) = .376 Recap We have a test with very high clinical reliabilities: If a person has the virus, the test result will be positive with probability .999 If a person does not have the virus, the test result will be negative with probability .990 But we have extremely poor performance when the test is positive: P(person has HIV given that test is positive) =.376 In other