《宏观经济学教学课件》Chapter_21.pptVIP

Introduction This chapter offers advanced material presenting the revolution in macroeconomics that has developed over the last 30 years We look at four theories in this chapter: Rational expectations The random walk of GDP Real business cycle theory New Keynesian models of price stickiness Rational Expectations Equilibrium Models In a rational expectations equilibrium model, markets clear and there is nothing systematic that monetary policy can do to affect output or unemployment The term “rational expectations equilibrium” identifies two key features of this approach It places weight on the role of expectations (rational ones) Economic agents do not know the future with certainty ? base their plans/decisions on their forecasts or expectations about the future If agents are rational, they will use all available information when forming those expectations The rational expectations model insists on equilibrium Markets clear immediately Rational Expectations Equilibrium Models The full neoclassical theory of AS asserts that: Unemployment is always at the natural rate Output is always at the full-employment level Any unemployment is purely frictional Neither monetary nor fiscal policy changes will have any systematic effect on output The rational expectations equilibrium approach offers a deviation from that model: Some people do not know the aggregate price level but do know the nominal wage or price at which they can buy or sell. Rational Expectations Equilibrium Models Assume a simple AD schedule: (1) Assume a simple short run AS curve, including price expectations: (2) The AD and AS equations can be combined to solve for output (3) and prices (4) in terms of m and other variables Rewrite AD as p = m + v – y, equating AD and AS, and solving for y: (3)