我国城乡居民收入差距的数理经济模型.docVIP

我国城乡居民收入差距的数理经济模型及其实证研究 摘要： 深化收入分配制度改革，增加城乡居民收入是我国改革的根本目标。改革开放以来，我国的经济持续快速发展，人民的生活水平得到了很大提高，但与此同时，我国也出现了严重的居民收入差距。文章在对收入分配的影响因素进行分析的基础上，建立一个回归模型分析所有制结构的演变与居民收入的关系，进而通过协整分析和格兰杰因果检验，对二元经济结构与城乡居民收入差距之间的数量关系进行了分析和检验。研究结论表明：转型期所有制结构的演变以及二元经济结构是我国居民收入差距呈扩大趋势的根本原因，二元经济结构与城乡居民收入差距具有单向的格兰杰原因。最后针对城乡收入差距扩大的趋势提出相应的解决对策。 abstract: to deepen reform of the income distribution system, increase the income of urban-rural residents are the basic goal of reform in china. since the reform and opening up, china’s economy sustained steady and rapid growth, people’s living level improved significantly. however, the income gap between urban and rural residents shows a trend of continuous expansion. in this context, we firstly review the theory on several influential factors of income distribution. and then, we establish a regression model to analyze the relationship between the evolution of ownership structure and residents’ income. in addition, using co-integration analysis and grange causality test, the paper makes an empirical work on the relationship between urban-rural dual economic structure and urban-rural income disparity. the results show that the evolution of ownership structure in transformation period brings the residents’ income grow largely; ownership structure and urban-rural dual economic structure are two fundamental influential factors in continuous expansion of urban-rural income gap. meanwhile, the dual economic structure and the income disparity between urban and rural residents exists one-way causality. finally, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestion based on the empirical analysis. 关键词： 收入差距；所有制结构；二元经济结构；影响因素 key words: income disparity；ownership structure；urban-rural dual economic structure；effecting factor 0 引言 国外对收入分配较为系统的研究始于上世纪五十年代，美国统计学家库兹涅茨（1955）在其《经济增长和收入不均等》一文中，他通过分析美、英、德等少数发达国家的收入分配的长期变化情况，得出一个重要结论：在经济增长的早期阶段，收入不均等程度会随着生产力的发展而逐渐增大，随后出现一个稳定期，最后一个阶段收入差距会逐渐缩小，也就是著名的库兹涅茨“倒u假说”[1]。 研究收入分配的文献较多，中国的经济体制处于转型期，很多因素影响分配制度的改革和发展，文献[2，3]指出中国居民收入的分配格