临沂市统计数据质量可靠性评估..docVIP

13届 　 分 类 号: 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 单位代码:10452 毕业论文（设计） 临沂市统计数据质量可靠性评估 　　　　　　 2013年04月15日 摘 要 随着社会经济的高速发展,社会对经济的关注度不断提升.由于统计数据反映了经济热点及经济发展的有效程度,从而人们对统计数据的质量越发开始关注.准确可靠的统计数据,是进行科学决策和科学管理的重要依据.尽管统计数据总体上来看反映了我国经济发展的趋势,但当前统计工作中的确存在一些弄虚作假的行为.由此可见,有必要对我国统计数据质量的定量检验进行系统深入的研究. 本文首先从统计数据的研究背景和研究意义出发,介绍了统计数据质量的概念和重要性.其次采用了基于稳健回归的方法,在生产函数模型的框架下,分别使用两种不同的劳动投入数据,对临沂市生产总值数据质量进行了评估,结果表明,基于稳健估计的异常值诊断方法可有效地解决传统方法容易出现的多个异常点的掩盖现象,临沂市的生产总值数据是相对可靠的.最后,根据以上的分析,我们对政府决策提供了五点建议. 关键词:统计数据质量;稳健 估计;异常值诊断 Abstract With the rapid development of social economy, social concern for the economy is of ceaseless promotion. Due to the statistical data reflects the effective degree of the economic hot spots and economic development, thus people begin to pay more attention to the quality of the statistical data. Accurate and reliable statistical data is an important basis for scientific decision-making and scientific management. Generally speaking, although the statistical data reflects Chinas economic development, the current statistical work do exist in some resort to deceit behavior. Therefore, there is need in depth study for quantitative test of the quality of statistical data. This article first introduces the concept and importance of the quality of statistical data from the research background and significance of the statistical data;Secondly, based on robust regression method, using two different labor input data in the framework of the production function mode assess the quality of GDP data in Linyi City. The results show that the diagnostic methods of abnormal value based on robust estimation of outliers can effectively solve the masking effect of a number of abnormal values in traditional method,so GDP data, Linyi City, is relatively reliable.Finally, according to the above analysis, we provide five suggestions for government decision-making. Key words:Statistical data quality; Robust estimator;