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A4_Assessing methods of identifying management forecasts.docx

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Assessing methods of identifying management forecasts: CIG vs. researcher collected识别管理预测评估方法：CIG与研究者收集1. IntroductionabstractThis paper examines the characteristics of management forecasts available on Thomson First Call’s Company Issued Guidance (CIG) database relative to a sample of forecasts hand-collected through a search of company press releases. Due to the significantly lower cost of using CIG (relative to hand-collecting data), academics have increasingly relied on this database as a source of management forecasts. However, it is important for researchers to consider the properties of this database (such as coverage, accuracy, and breadth) when evaluating whether it is an appropriate data source for their study. Overall, our results suggest systematic differences between forecasts reported on CIG and forecasts gathered from company press releases. We suggest several sample criteria that will remove or mitigate these biases.本文探讨了适用于Thomson First Call调查的公司所发行的数据库相对指南（CIG），以预测通过搜索的公司新闻稿手工采集的样品管理预报的特点。由于使用CIG（相对于手工收集数据），学者越来越多地依赖于这个数据库作为管理预测源的显著降低成本。但是，它为研究人员在评估它是否是一个合适的数据源为他们的学习考虑这个数据库的属性（如覆盖，准确性和广度）是很重要的。总的来说，我们的结果表明报道CIG及从公司的新闻稿聚集预测预测之间的系统差异。我们提出了几种样品的标准，这将消除或减轻这些偏见。Management forecasts have long been an area of interest in academic research. Early studies examined, among other things, the accuracy of management forecasts (Copeland and Marioni, 1972; McDonald, 1973; Ruland, 1978); the information content of forecasts (Foster, 1973; Patell, 1976; Waymire, 1984; Pownall and Waymire, 1989); the type of news disclosed (Penman, 1980; Ajinkya and Gift, 1984; Lev and Penman, 1990; Skinner, 1994), and the precision of forecasts (Pownall et al., 1993; Bamber and Cheon, 1998). In most of these early studies, researchers used hand-collected samples of management forecasts gathered from company-issued press releases. However, in recent years, a growing interest in the role of management forecasts in the capital markets – or what has become more commonly referred to as e