MankiwEconomicsChap33中山大学吴柏林教授“曼昆·经济学原理”绝密资料.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Rational Expectations The theory of rational expectations suggests that people optimally use all the information they have, including information about government policies, when forecasting the future. Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile 5.2.0.0. Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. Rational Expectations Expected inflation explains why there is a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment in the short run but not in the long run. How quickly the short-run tradeoff disappears depends on how quickly expectations adjust. Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile 5.2.0.0. Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. Rational Expectations The theory of rational expectations suggests that the sacrifice-ratio could be much smaller than estimated. Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile 5.2.0.0. Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. The Volcker Disinflation When Paul Volcker was Fed chairman in the 1970s, inflation was widely viewed as one of the nation’s foremost problems. Volcker succeeded in reducing inflation (from 10% to 4%), but at the cost of high employment (about 10% in 1983). Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile 5.2.0.0. Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. Unemployment Rate (percent) Inflation Rate (percent per year) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2 4 6 8 10 The Volcker Disinflation... 1979 1980 1983 1981 1982 1984 1986 1987 1985 A B C Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile 5.2.0.0. Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. The Greenspan Era Alan Greenspan’s term as Fed chairman began with a favorable supply shock. In 1986, OPEC members abandoned their agreement to restrict supply. This led to falling inflation and falling unemployment. Evaluation only. Created with Aspose.Slides for .NET 3.5 Client Profile 5.2.0.0. Copyright 2004-2011 Aspose Pty Ltd. Unem