Lecture6投资决策风险程序.ppt

* * If you don’t invest, the NPV = 0, even if you test first, because the cost of testing becomes a sunk cost. If you are so unwise as to invest in the face of a failed test, you incur lots of additional costs, but not much in the way of revenue, so you have a negative NPV as of date 1. Referring back to slide 7 (Decision to Test) may help to clarify the application of decision trees. Click to edit Master subtitle style  Lecture 6 风险分析、实物期权和资本预算 汪宜霞 华中科技大学管理学院 * 影响项目的不确定因素 投资额：包括固定资产投资和流动资金投资 产品产量及销售量； 经营成本； 项目寿命期； 项目寿命期末的资产回收，包括固定资产残值的回收和流动资金的回收； 折现率。 主要内容 敏感性分析, 场景分析与盈亏平衡分析 蒙特卡洛模拟 实物期权(决策树