李美美 论文5稿李美 论文5稿.doc

河北经贸大学毕业论文 论QE3对中国经济的影响 姓名 ：李美美 班级 ：国际金融1班 学号 ：200910111026 指导老师 ：李海燕  摘要 2012年，由于产能过剩，产业结构失调，工业技术进步缓慢，美国正经历自1933年经济大萧条以来最为严重的经济衰退。2012年9月13日，美国联邦储备委员会宣布，推出第三轮量化宽松政策（简称QE3），目的不仅是刺激美国经济尤其是就业的增长，而且将给新兴经济体国家带来负面溢出效应。量化宽松货币政策增加的基础货币将导致美元贬值，加大全球通货膨胀压力，刺激国际市场短期资本流向中国、印度等新兴市场，稀释美国债务，加大其他国家持有美元固定收益资产的投资损失。中国持有的大量固定收益美元资产将因此大幅缩水，并面临输入型通货膨胀压力加大和短期资本大量涌入的挑战，需采取优化外汇储备投资结构、加强对短期资本流入管控、加快实施国内企业“走出去”战略、增强人民币汇率弹性等多方面措施加以应对。本文通过论述QE3的背景，内容及特点，分析了QE3对人民币汇率及中国国际收支、中国货币供应量及国内物价水平以及对中国经济增长的影响，并对中国的政策选择提出应对措施。 关键词：QE3；中国经济；影响；政策选择  Abstract In 2012,the United States was experiencing the most serious economic recession since the great depression in 1933 due to the excess capacity ,imbalance in the industrial structure ,as well as the slow technical progress. On September 13,2012, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced to launch a third round of quantitative easing(QE3), aiming to fuel economic growth especially in employment and bring negative spillover effects to emerging economies. The base currency increased by the quantitative easing policy will lead to the depreciation of U.S. dollar , increase the pressure of global inflation ,stimulate the short-term capital of international market to flow to China ,India and other emerging markets , relieve the debt of America ,increase the investment losses of other countries holding U.S. dollar fixed-income assets .The large U.S. dollar fixed-income assets China holds will thus be substantially diminished , and face the challenges of imported inflation pressures and the influx of short-term capital. Optimizing the investment structure of foreign exchange reserves strengthening the control of the influx of short-term capital, enhancing the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate and other measures should be carried. The paper analyzes the impact of QE3 on the RMB exchange rate and international balance of payments, money supply and domestic price level and the impact on economic growth, through discoursing up on the background contents and