theenvironmentalandeconomicimportanceofthe g b rspecifically（ theenvironmentalandeconomicimportanceofthe g b rspecifically）.docVIP

Climate Change, coral bleaching and the future of the world’s coral reefs. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg Associate Professor, School of Biological Sciences, Director, The Coral Reef Research Institute, University of Sydney Executive summary Sea temperatures in the tropics have increased by almost 1oC over the past 100 years and are currently increasing at the rate of approximately 1-2oC per century. Reef-building corals, which are central to healthy coral reefs, are currently living close to their thermal maxima. They become stressed if exposed to small slight increases (1-2oC) in water temperature and experience coral bleaching. Coral bleaching occurs when the photosynthetic symbionts of corals (zooxanthellae) become increasing vulnerable to damage by light. The resulting damage leads to the expulsion of these important organisms from the coral host. Corals tend to die in great numbers immediately following coral bleaching events, which may stretch across thousands of square kilometers of ocean. Bleaching events in 1998, the worst year on record, saw the complete loss of live coral in some parts of the world. This paper reviews our understanding of coral bleaching and demonstrates that the current increase in the intensity and extent of coral bleaching is due to increasing sea temperature. Importantly, this paper uses the output four major global climate change models to predict how the frequency and intensity of bleaching events will change over the next hundred years. The results of this analysis are startling and a matter of great concern. Sea temperatures calculated by all models (ECHAM3/LSG, ECHAM4/OPYC3 with and without aerosols, CSIRO DAR model) and based on the IPCC Scenario A (doubling of carbon dioxide levels by 2100, IPCC 1995) show that the thermal tolerances of reef-building corals will be exceeded within the next few decades. As a result of these increases, bleaching events are set to increase in frequency and intensity. Events as severe as the 1