基于数学形态学的短期风能预测（参考）.docxVIP

基于数学形态学的短期风能预测摘要经济全球化一体化的推动，使得能源的问题较为突出，再生能源的发展备受各方关注。作为可再生能源的重要组成部分，风能已经成为全世界关注的热点。?风能是一种清洁可再生能源的非环境成本，风力发电机及其生命周期成本是稳定的，没有外部能源的依赖。目前，风力发电最重要的技术措施是风力发电，到目前为止最成熟的可再生能源技术，最建设规模和长期发展的形式之一。但是由于风能的不确定性和间歇性，风能也称作“不可调度”资源。随着风力发电并网在全网发电总量比例的不断上升，将对现有电网造成冲击，给电力系统安全、稳定、经济运行提出了新的困难和挑战。精确的风能预测，是解决风能不确定性和间歇性所引发一系列问题的最经济、最可行的方案之一。关键词：可再生能源；风力发电；精确风能预测；不确定性和间歇性AbstractWith the development of global industry, energy and environment problem increasingly prominent, the development and application of renewable energy is more and more receives the attention of the countries all over the world. As an important part of renewable energy, wind energy has become a hot topic of the world. Wind energy is a kind of environmental costs of clean and renewable energy, and the wind turbine cycle cost stable life, there is no external energy dependence. At present, the use of wind power is the main means of the wind, and so far the most mature renewable energy technologies, one of the most scale and prospects for development way of generating.But because of the uncertainty of the wind and intermittent wind energy is also called scheduling resources.With the percentage of the total wind power grid in the entire network power increasing, the impact to the existing power grid, to power system security, stability, economic operation and new difficulties and challenges. Wind power prediction precision, wind power is to solve uncertainty and intermittent has triggered a series of problems of one of the most economic and feasible scheme.Key Words: Renewable energy; Wind energy generation accurate wind forecasting uncertainty and intermittent 目录摘要IAbstractIII第一章绪论11.1、课题研究背景及意义11.2、风能预测技术的研究现状11.2.1、国外研究现状11.2.2、国内研究现状21.3、本文研究内容及研究方式21.3.1、研究内容21.3.2、研究方式2第二章MATLAB概述32.1 MATLAB简介32.2 MATLAB特点32.2.1 界面友好容易使用32.2.2 强大的图形处理功能32.2.3 应用广泛的专业领域工具箱42.2.4 实用的程序接口4第三章风能预测技术介绍43.1、引言43.2、灰值形态学[1]53.2.1形态学简介[1]53.2.2 灰值形态学定义63.2.3 扁平结构元素[3]63.2.4 灰值形态运算[3]73.2.4 一维数字信号的灰值形态学[4]83.3、最小二乘支持向量机[6]93.4、风能预测方法简介[5]9