HMM仿真计算在企业可追溯投资意愿中的运用.docVIP

果蔬加工企业可追溯体系投资决策意愿研究：HMM模型的仿真计算摘 要：本文尝试性地应用隐马尔科夫模型，基于Baum-Welch算法建模、Viterbi算法解码和Matlab仿真方法，以山东临沂地区的87家果蔬加工企业为案例，研究了企业可追溯体系投资决策意愿的形成过程与主要影响因素。研究显示，与人的心理特征相类似，果蔬企业可追溯体系的投资决策意愿具有多种状态，决策是一个由多种因素交织影响的复杂过程。研究表明，净收益预期，政府的食品安全监管力度与支持政策，国际市场需求，食品安全质量认证体系与信息化水平和企业管理者年龄特征等是影响投资决策的主要因素，而垂直一体化程度与行业风险特征、企业管理学历特征对于果蔬产业供应链比较短的行业并不是主要影响因素。 关键词：果蔬加工企业；可追溯体系；投资决策；决策意愿；HMM模型 中图分类号：F830 文献标识码：A The research of intention of fruit and vegetable processing corporation on investment in food traceability system: simulation account By Hidden Markov Model Wu Linhai Qin Yi XuLingling Abstract: In this paper, we try to research the intention of 87 fruit and vegetable processing corporations of Feng County ,Jiangsu Province on investment in food traceability system and the main factors by HMM （Hidden Markov Model, HMM） which based on Baum-Welch algorithm modeling and obtain the optimal path by Matlab simulation with Viterbi decoding algorithm. The results show that, like the characters of human’s psychology, the intention of fruit and vegetable processing corporations on investment in traceability system are various and affected by variety of factors. The main factors affect the investment intention of fruit and vegetable processing corporations are the expectation of net income, government’s regulation and support policies on food safety, demand of international market, the level of corporations’ quality certification system and information communication, and managers’ age. However, the main factors which affect the investment intention of short food supply chain of fruit and vegetable corporations are not the level of degree of integration, characters of industry risk, and managers’ education level. （1. Jiangnan University a.Base for Food Safety,Jiangsu Wuxi 214122 China;b. School of Business;c.School of Internet of Things Engineering;Jiangsu Wuxi 214122 Key words: Food Producers; Traceability system; Investment decision; Intention on decision; HMM 食品可追溯体系能够通过供应链形成可靠且连续的信息