PM2.5ModelPerformanceLessonsLearnedandRecomme.ppt

PM2.5 Model Performance: Lessons Learned and Recommendations Naresh Kumar Eladio Knipping EPRI February 11, 2004 Acknowledgements Atmospheric Environmental Research, Inc. (AER) Betty Pun, Krish Vijayaraghavan and Christian Seigneur Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Elizabeth Bailey, Larry Gautney, Qi Mao and others University of California, Riverside Zion Wang, Chao-Jung Chien and Gail Tonnesen Overview Model Performance Issues Need for Performance Guidelines/Benchmarking Review of Statistics Summary Model Performance Issues Evaluation of Modeling Systems Local vs. Regional Evaluation Daily/Episodic/Seasonal/Annual Averaging Threshold and Outliers What Species to Evaluate? Sampling/Network Issues Examples from Model Applications Two applications of CMAQ-MADRID Southeastern U.S. (SOS 1999 Episode) Big Bend National Park, Texas (BRAVO); Four-Month Study Statistical performance for SO42–, EC, OM, PM2.5 Application in Southeastern U.S. Southern Oxidant Study (SOS 1999) June 29 to July 10, 1999 Meteorology processed from MM5 simulations using MCIP2.2 Emissions files courtesy of TVA Simulation Continental U.S. Domain 32-km horizontal resolution without nesting Application to Big Bend National Park The Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation Transport (GOCART) model prescribed boundary conditions for SO2 and SO42– to the REMSAD domain. Preliminary Base Case simulation used boundary conditions as prescribed from a simulation of the larger outer domain by REMSAD. SO2 and SO42– concentrations were scaled at CMAQ-MADRID boundary according to CASTNet and IMPROVE Network observations. BRAVO Monitoring Network Local vs. Regional (SOS 1999) Local vs. Regional (BRAVO) Daily SO42– P:O Pairs with Different Averaging Daily SO42– P:O Pairs for Each Month Effect of Threshold Mean-Normalized/Fractional Statistics Need for Model Performance Guidelines If no guidelines exist Conduct model simulation with best estimate of emissions and meteorology Per