LAASIonosphereAnomalyPriorProbabilityModelVersion.pptVIP

14 October 2005 LAAS Ionosphere Anomaly Prior Probability Model: Version 3.0 Proposed Iono. Anomaly Models for LAAS “Version 1.0” (November 2002 – proposed to FAA) Fundamentally based on average or “ensemble” risk over all approaches Insufficient data to back up assumed probability of threatening storm conditions “Version 2.0” (May 2005 – internal to SU) Uses enlarged database of iono. storm days to estimate probability of threatening conditions Considers several options for “threshold” Kp above which threat to LAAS exists “Version 3.0” (October 2005) – details in this briefing Two results: one for fast-moving wave-front anomalies (detectable by LGF) and one for slow-moving (potentially undetectable) anomalies Establishes basis for averaging over both storm-day probabilities and over “hazard interval” within a storm day Two Cases for this Study For fast-moving storms: prior probability of potentially-hazardous fast-moving storm prior to LGF detection, but including “precursor” credit Result sets PMD for relevant LGF monitors For slow-moving storms: prior probability of slow-moving (and thus potentially undetectable by LGF) storm, including “precursor” credit Feasible mitigation is included in prior prob. “Pirreg” Prior Prob. Model used in WAAS Cited by Bruce – used in GIVE verification in WAAS “PHMI document” (October 2002) “Pirreg” formerly known as “Pstorm” Examines probability of transition from “quiet” to “irregular” conditions in given time interval Upcoming GIVE algorithm update does not need it (can assume Pirreg = 1) Uses a pre-existing model of observed Kp occurrence probabilities from 1932 - 2000 Each Kp translates into a computed conditional risk of unacceptable iono. decorrelation for GIVE algorithm (decorr. ratio 1) Key Results from Pirreg Study Observed Iono. Storm Totals since Oct. 1999 Severe Kp State Probability Comparison Confidence Interval for Probability of Threatening Storms (1) Use binomial(s,n) model to express confidence interval (CI)