Developmentofneuralnetworkemulationsofmodelphysics.ppt

Development of neural network emulations of model physics components for improving the computational performance of the NCEP seasonal climate forecastsP.I.s: M. Fox-Rabinovitz, V. Krasnopolsky, NCEP Co-I.s: S. Lord, Y.-T. Hou, UMD Collaborator: A. Belochitski, CTB contact: H.-L. Pan Acknowledgments: The authors would like to thank Drs. H.-L. Pan, S. Saha, S. Moorthi, and M. Iredell for their useful consultations and discussions. The research is supported by the NOAA CPO CDEP CTB grant NA06OAR4310047. Outline NN Training for the coupled NCEP CFS Development of NN emulations Validation of the10-Year Climate Simulation and Seasonal Predictions (NN run vs. the control (with the original radiation) Short Term Plans (through the end of the current grant, Feb. 2009) Outline of the Continuation Proposal (3 years, 08/01/2009 – 07/31/2012) Background Any parameterization of model physics is a relationship or MAPPING (continuous or almost continuous) between two vectors: a vector of input parameters, X, and a vector of output parameters, Y, NN is a generic approximation for any continuous or almost continuous mapping given by a set of its input/output records: SET = {Xi, Yi}i = 1, …,N Neural Network Continuous Input to Output Mapping LWR NN175 – Training NN175 emulates LWR RRTM2 that is the most time consuming physics component in the coupled NCEP CFS/GFS model NN architecture: High dimensional training set consists of LWR inputs and outputs: the training set was selected from 12-year (1995 – 2006) T126L64 run half of the data is used for training and another half for validation or NN accuracy estimation vs. the original LWR every 2 weeks, one day, i.e. eight 3 hourly global files have been recorded; totally – 2,080 files 100 events/profiles have been selected randomly from each 3 hourly global file Totally – 208,000 events/profiles is used for NN training CFS Model: LWR NN emulation NN dimensionality and other parameters: 591 inputs: 12 va