TheFastDebrisEvolution(FaDE)Model.pptVIP

SESA2006 Computing The Fast Debris Evolution (FaDE) Model H.G. Lewis, G.G. Swinerd, R.J. Newland A. Saunders Outline Motivation Aims The FADE-? Model Comparison with Talent’s 1992 PIB Model Results Summary Motivation The future debris environment is traditionally characterised using a few key descriptors, e.g. Effective number of objects Number of collisions The impact of space operations on the debris environment can be addressed by answering broad questions, e.g. Has the number of objects increased or decreased? How has the number of objects increased or decreased? Motivation Evolutionary models typically use Monte Carlo simulation Many runs required for reliable distributions Mean and standard deviations usually reported Motivation Evolutionary models typically use Monte Carlo simulation Many runs required for reliable distributions Mean and standard deviations usually reported Aim Reduce the effort required to capture basic descriptors of the future environment Reduce/remove the need for many MC runs Maintain accuracy of forecasts Identify ‘interesting’ cases quickly Use full, 3-D models to explore outliers Characterise runs by their differences from the average Improve accessibility to future projections Flexibility Explore different scenarios Explore sensitivity to intitial conditions Provide outreach possibilities FaDE Approach Describe debris evolution using an equation of motion/intitial value problem: Estimate values of N for t 0 using Euler’s method: Include debris species: Intacts Explosion fragments Collision fragments FaDE Approach Intacts: Explosion fragments: Collision fragments: FaDE Approach: Launches, Explosions Removals L represents the product of launch rate and number of intacts per launch (similar definition for E) Value of D is species-dependent Coefficients L, E, D define basic ‘scenario’ FaDE: Basic User Interface FaDE Approach: Collisions Random collisions account for the biggest difference between MC