浙江省城市存量土地利用現状.docVIP

浙江省城市存量土地利用现状 成员： 谢佳兵1111012144 陈佳宁1111012103 孔 媛1111012124 班级： 国 贸1111班 目 录 前言·····················································1 一、问题的提出············································1 二、模型设定·············································1 三、数据收集·············································2 四、模型的估计············································3 五、模型检验·············································4 经济意义检验··········································4 统计推断检验··········································4 拟合优度················································4 F检验··················································4 t检验··················································4 计量经济学检验········································4 共线性检验··············································4 异方差检验··············································5 PARK检验················································5 Goldfeld-Quanadt检验········································6 自相关检验··············································7 偏相关系数检验············································7 拉格朗日乘数（LM）检验·······································7 六、本文结论·············································8 七、参考文献··············································9 浙江省城市存量土地利用现状 前言 改革开放30年来，我国经济一直持续高速发展，同时，我国城市化进程与城市建设也取得了显著成就。然而，伴随着快速城市化而来的还有诸多由此引发的问题。最明显的是大量土地从农业部门转移到非农建设部门，由此造成耕地资源的大量损失，并导致生态环境的退化；而城市却并不珍惜其土地的来之不易，研究表明，我国大城市普遍存在用地过度扩张，土地低效利用的现象。城市空间扩张表现为一种“摊大饼”式或“蛙跳”式增长，是一种无序的城市蔓延现象。由此造成的城市土地的闲置和低效利用与我国的耕地保护政策和大量耕地被占用构成了一对无奈的矛盾。但在我国经济快速增长的阶段，经济增长过程中的非农化损失又不可避免。 一、问题的提出 有鉴于上述现状，城市土地的集约利用就显得尤为重要。而与此同时，各地因自身条件的差异，其发展也并不平衡。浙江省地处我国东南沿海，是我国经济发展的重点区域。近几十年来，其经济发展速度和城市化发展水平都取得了令人瞩目的成就，但同时，浙江省10.18万平方公里的土地面积以及其多山多水少地的土地格局严重制约着浙江省经济的进一步发展。此外，因浙江省内各地市间资源禀赋的差异，各地市发展水平也很不一致。由此研究其各地市土地集约利用现状并比较其中差异，将有利于认清各地市土地集约利用现状及差异，从而指导规划并促进经济发展。 二、模型设定 本文以浙江省为例，以EViews6.0软件为平台，试图通过建立计量经济学模型对浙江省房地产开发投资主要指标进行经济预测，分析其现状并提出相应对策，以期指导规划并促进发展。 本文选定“2001-2011年浙江省房地产开发投资主要指标”为研究对象，由于房地产开发投资额和购置的土地面积在某种程度上对施工面积会产生影响，因此设定其中的“房地产开发投资额”（X1）、”购置的土地面积”(X2)为解