經管学院_硕士_CAPM在中国股票市场的实证检验_赵善福.docVIP

摘 要 资本资产定价模型理论是现代金融工程中一个非常重要的理论，在现实中也得到了广泛的应用。资本资产定价模型作为现代金融学理论的基础，它将选择风险资产的投资分析过程大大的简化，给出了简洁优美的定价公式，从而使投资者能够方便地、广泛地应用它们解决投资决策中的一般性问题。为了加深对资本资产定价模型的认识，更好地在我国证券市场上使用该模型，本文介绍了资本资产定价模型相关的理论基础并进行了相应的实证研究。本文以上证A股指数收益率作为市场收益率，以一年期定期存款为无风险利率，选取了2005年1月到2010年12月上海股票市场上100支股票作为数据样本，使用双程回归法对中国股票市场进行了实证检验。实证检验表明，中国证券市场还不是一个成熟的有效的市场，β值不能显著性地成为收益率的解释因素，市场之外的因素在证券定价中起到了不可忽视的作用。在目前的市场中，投资者不能很好地通过投资组合来降低风险。在当前的市场环境中投资者仅仅依靠β值来对中国证券市场上市公司股票风险和收益之间关系进行精确度量，并以此作为指导投资决策的法则尚不可行。尽管中国的股票市场在过去的二十年中取得了令人瞩目的成就，但是中国的股票市场离成熟有效的市场还有相当的差距，把我国的股票市场建成为为国民经济服务的成熟有效的市场需要我们不懈的努力。本文在实证研究的基础上结合证券市场的实际情况进行了原因探究，并提出了优化市场监管、加强上市公司自律、加大投资者教育等相关政策建议。 关键词：资本定价理论；上海股票市场；实证检验   ABSTRACT Capital asset pricing model is a very important theory in the modern financial engineering, and has also been widely used in reality. With the capital asset pricing model makes that investors can be easily, widely used them to solve the general problem investment decision. In order to deepen the understanding of the capital asset pricing model, this paper introduces the capital asset pricing model and the relevant theory of corresponding empirical research. This article uses the A-share index returns as the market rate of return, uses the one-year deposit interest rate for the risk-free, selects in January 2005 to December 2010 on the Shanghai stock market as a data sample of 100 stocks and uses two-way regression on the Chinese stock market make an empirical test. Empirical tests show that Chinas stock market is not yet a mature and effective market, β value can not become a significant factor in the interpretation of yield, and other factors played in the pricing of securities can not be ignored. In the current market, investors can not very well through the portfolio to reduce risk. In the current market environment, investors can not rely on β-value shares of listed companies to establish the relationship between risk and return, and as a rule to guide investment decisions. Although Chinas stock market in the p