ppt课件-storm surge101-slosh- n o a a（风暴surge101-slosh - n o）.pptVIP

When is it Available? Whenever a hurricane watch or warning is in effect Available about 30 minutes after the advisory release time The number one argument against using probability is that users do not understand how to interpret low probabilities of an extreme event Would you offer to pick up free lunch if there is a 20% chance of you being involved in a fatal car accident along the way? Understanding/Using Probability Rmax=25 mi (forecast) Surge Based on NHC -12 hr. Advisory Deterministic SLOSH run shows limited surge threat to Pensacola area Probabilistic product shows considerable su