Analyis of Load Factors at Nuclear Power Plants.docVIP

Analysis of Load Factors at Nuclear Power Plants by Michael T. Maloney Introduction One of the important factors in forecasting levelized cost at nuclear power plants (NPPs) is load factor. Load factor is the amount of power produced by a generator divided by the engineering capacity of the unit. Usually load factors are stated for a year. The calculation, then, is the total kilowatt hours of power generated by the unit divided by the capacity of the unit in kilowatts times the number of hours in the year. In our earlier work, we assumed a best-case scenario for load factors in Russia of 79 percent. However, nuclear power plants world wide have not historically enjoyed load factors this high, nor has Russia. Since levelized cost is directly proportional to load factor, this is a significant factor in determining the true cost effectiveness of nuclear power. A 10 percent decrease in load factor, say, from 79 percent to 71 percent, increases cost by 10 percent. Load factor is the amount of power produced by a generator divided by the engineering capacity of the unit. Usually load factors are stated for a year. The calculation, then, is the total kilowatt hours of power generated by the unit divided by the capacity of the unit in kilowatts times the number of hours in the year. The world wide historical experience in load factor is 69.4 percent for reactors currently operating and 68.3 percent for all commercial reactors over all time. Data on design, construction, and operating characteristics of nuclear power plants world wide is available from the Interational Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) through its Power Reactor Information System (PRIS). These numbers are capacity weighted averages by machine by year. The following two tables show the world wide experience by year and by country. By year, load factors have been improving. Load factors were 50 to 60 percent in the early 1970s. They have increased to around 80 percent today. Even so, there is still a wide ra