(飞轮电池生产计划制定.docxVIP

飞轮电池生产计划的制定市场需求预测实际产品的生产工艺路线分析生产方式的经济分析和比较制定综合生产计划生产能力的粗平衡制定主生产计划制定MRP,CRP生产能力的精平衡零件工序卡编制产品装配工序卡编制1.市场需求预测（Market forecast）实验数据Month 1Month 2Month 3Month 4Yearear 210202723Year 311222926根据给出的数据，选择一种模型来预测下一年的市场需求量，属于长期预。从给出的数据分析可以得出，每年的同一月份市场需求量比较接近而同一年份的不同月份之间存在较大的差异，市场需求量与时间季节因素有关。方案一：Seasonalized Time Seiries Regression的模型来进行市场预测。预测结果如下： Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%) YEAR SEASON FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 4 1 11.458 10.910 12.006 4 2 23.364 22.268 24.460 4 3 31.750 30.289 33.212 4 4 28.305 27.026 29.584误差分析 R = 0.942R-SQUARE = 0.8872MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 0.333MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.283MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = -0.131STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 0.605SEASONAL INDEX (1) = 0.500SEASONAL INDEX (2) = 1.000SEASONAL INDEX (3) = 1.333SEASONAL INDEX (4) = 1.167预测的误差在合理的范围内，预测结果如下：Month1234Demand forecas案二：TIME SERIES REGRESSION 模型进行预测预测结果如下： Sales CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ( 90%) PERIOD FORECAST LOWER BOUND UPPER BOUND 13 26.091 14.974 37.208 14 27.028 15.911 38.145 15 27.965 16.848 39.082 16 28.902 17.785 40.019误差分析：R = 0.500 R-SQUARE = 0.2501MEAN ABSOLUTE DEVIATION (MAD) FOR THE LAST 3 PERIODS = 2.303MEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 31.369MEAN ERROR (bias) FOR ALL PAST PERIODS = 0.0STANDARD ERROR (sigmasubyx) IS = 6.1354从预测结果可以看出这种预测方法与过去的数据相差很大，因此，两种方法相比较，第一种预测误差精度更高误差更小，所以经过比较我采取第一种预测方法。2.实际产品的生产工艺路线分析(Product Process Analysis)零件代号零件名称零件材料零件工艺过程生产提前期12345MLF-03外壳Q235-A锻造车削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-05外转子电机套筒Q235-A锻造焊接车削钻孔、扩孔2MLF-11底板Q235-A锻造车削钻孔、扩孔1MLF-12电器定位板铝合金铸造车削铣削钻孔、扩孔2MLF-