基于功效系数法模型的企业财务预警指标设计与实证分析本科毕业设计.docVIP

目 录 摘要 1 Abstract 2 1.引言 3 1.1本文的研究背景 3 1.2本文的研究意义 3 2.选取企业财务预警指标的原则 4 2.1全面性原则 4 2.2敏感性原则 4 2.3动态性原则 4 2.4成本效益原则 5 2.5可操作与直观性原则 5 3.构建企业财务预警指标体系 5 3.1偿债能力方面 5 3.2资产营运能力方面 6 3.3盈利能力方面 6 3.4发展能力方面 6 3.5现金流量方面 7 4.对以上财务预警指标的差异显著性检验 8 5.对剩余财务预警指标的相关性分析 14 6.企业财务预警中的功效系数法模型 17 7.对以上所设计财务预警指标模型的实证分析与检验 21 8.结论 23 参考文献 25 摘要 随着我国市场经济的发展，企业对自身财务管理活动的规范化产生了迫切需求，财务预警作为财务管理的一个分支，也逐渐发挥着越来越重要的作用，其通过收集企业在经营活动中财务数据，然后建立模型，对企业的综合财务状况进行评测，进而指出企业所面临的潜在财务风险，使经营管理者提前采取措施，以应对可能的财务危机，并使企业摆脱困境，保持持续健康的发展。本文首先选取18个财务预警指标，然后用SPSS19.0统计软件对其进行非参数检验和相关分析，最终筛选出8个对企业经营状况比较敏感的财务指标，构建企业财务预警指标体系，之后通过实证分析的方法用功效系数法对企业这8个指标进行计算与评测，以判断企业的综合财务状况，最后取得了较为不错的效果。 关键词：功效系数法模型，财务预警，非参数检验，相关分析，实证分析 Abstract With the development of market economy in China , the enterprises have an urgent demand for the specification of their own financial management activities.The financial early warning , as a branch of financial management , gradually plays an increasingly important role.It collected financial data in enterprise’s business activities , built models , evaluate the comprehensive financial status of enterprises , point out the potential financial risks faced by the enterprise so that the managers take measures in advance to response to the financial crisis , enable enterprises out of difficulties and maintain a sustained and healthy development.This paper selected 18 financial indexes at first , then selected 8 indexes which were sensitive to the enterprise’s business status with the nonparametric test and correlation analysis of statistical software spss 19.0 , and then construct enterprise financial early-warning indexes system.At last this paper calculated and evaluated the 8 indicators of enterprises with the model of efficacy coefficient method through empirical analysis to judge the enterprise’s comprehensive financial situation.The paper achieved good results. Keywords：the model of efficacy coefficient method , financial early-warning , nonparametric test , corre