PowerLawsModelling培训讲义.pptVIP

Political Economy: Evolutionary Economics Power Laws Evolutionary Modelling Recap Modern evolutionary economics Veblen/Schumpeter hybrid Necessity of non-equilibrium, dynamic modelling Chaos/complexity Complex patterns from simple models Evolution to “edge of chaos” Simple tools for dynamic analysis Difficult tools for evolutionary modelling… Chaos, Complexity Evolution Logistic difference equation (last week) typical chaotic system Low value of parameter: Convergence to equilibrium Medium value: regular cycles (2,4,8 cycles, etc.) Higher value: chaos (aperiodic cycles) Chaos: measures of systemic instability 1 (Lyapunov exponent…) Evolutionary data: systemic instability measure ? 1… “the edge of chaos” Why? Chaos, Complexity Evolution Chaotic models remain chaotic because parameters are fixed: Tiny change in parameter, huge change in system But same value, same outcome every time… Chaos, Complexity Evolution In evolutionary system, parameters change Change seems to evolve systems to “edge of chaos” Then system fluctuates either side of edge over time Therefore, patterns of “edge of chaos” appear in all evolutionary systems Self-similarity Scale invariance Power Laws Self-organised criticality Concepts from “self-organised criticality” may be used to interpret evolutionary systems that are currently too difficult to model… Power Laws: an empirical regularity Empirical research shows many phenomena follow “power law” distribution: Number of size X events ? X raised to some power Power Laws: an empirical regularity “Log of number of earthquakes of size X is a times log of X” “Log of number of species extinctions of size X is a times log of X” “Log of number of meteor impacts of size X is a times log of X” And, if economic systems are evolutionary, “Log of number of stock market movements of size X is a times log of X” “Log of number of recessions of size X is a times log of X” “Log of number of firms of size X in an industry is a times log of X”… Power Laws: an