vals for Proportions培训教程文件.pptVIP

Confidence Intervals for Proportions (Edited for use by Professor Hudachek-Buswell) A Confidence Interval Recall that the sampling distribution model of is centered at p, with standard deviation . Since we don’t know p, we can’t find the true standard deviation of the sampling distribution model, so we need to find the standard error: Phat = proportion of the sample for success Qhat = proportion of the sample for failure, 1- phat A Confidence Interval (cont.) By the 68-95-99.7% Rule, we know about 68% of all samples will have ’s within 1 SE of p about 95% of all samples will have ’s within 2 SEs of p about 99.7% of all samples will have ’s within 3 SEs of p We can look at this from ’s point of view… A Confidence Interval (cont.) Consider the 95% level: There’s a 95% chance that p is no more than 2 SEs away from . So, if we reach out 2 SEs, we are 95% sure that p will be in that interval. In other words, if we reach out 2 SEs in either direction of , we can be 95% confident that this interval contains the true proportion. This is called a 95% confidence interval. What Does “95% Confidence” Really Mean? The figure to the right shows that some of our confidence intervals capture the true proportion (the green horizontal line), while others do not: Margin of Error: Certainty vs. Precision We can claim, with 95% confidence, that the interval contains the true population proportion. The extent of the interval on either side of is called the margin of error (ME) = z * SE. In general, confidence intervals have the form estimate ± ME. The more confident we want to be, the larger our ME needs to be. To be more confident, we wind up being less precise. Because of this, every confidence interval is a balance between certainty and precision. The tension between certainty and precision is always there. Margin of Error: Certainty vs. Precision (cont.) The choice of confidence level is somewhat arbitrary, but keep in mind thi