计及多重不确定因素的输电网随机潮流计算.docVIP

计及多重不确定因素的输电网随机潮流计算 李娜娜 (国网四川省电力公司技能培训中心，成都 610000) 针对确定性潮流计算不能准确描述输电网随机特性的缺陷，本文考虑多重不确定因素影响的输电网随机潮流计算，研究多重随机故障对输电网电压分布和潮流分布的影响。首先对发电机故障、负荷波动以及断线故障进行组合分析；其次，应用半不变量和Gram-Charlier级数展开的随机潮流分析方法，求取多重不确定因素影响下输电网各节点电压和各支路潮流的概率分布；最终，得到不同工况下节点电压越限概率以及支路潮流过载概率，进而评价多重不确定因素对输电网电压和支路功率的影响程度。研究结果对输电网规划和运行具有重要的参考价值。 输电网半不变量Gram-Charlier级数随机潮流TM715 文献标识码：B 文章编号：1001-1390（201）00-0000-00tochastic load flow calculation considering multiple uncertainties in transmission grid Li Nana (Skills Training Center of SiChuan Electric Power Company, Chengdu 610000, China) Abstract: In view of the defects of deterministic flow calculation method does not accurately describe the nature of transmission network random, this paper researched of the multiple random failures on the influence of voltage and load flow distribution in transmission network. First of all, the method of combinatorial analysis is used to prove several properties of the units of generator failure, load fluctuations and disconnection fault. Secondly, of the semi-invariant and Gram-Charlier series are applied to expand the stochastic load flow analysis method, each node voltages and the trend of the probability distribution of each branch are obtained under the influence of multiple uncertainties. Finally, it was obtained that under different conditions, the more limited probability of node voltages and the overload probability of branch flows, and made evaluation of the influence degree that the multiple uncertainties on the transmission network voltage and branch power. The research results provided an important valuable reference for the planning and operation of the transmission network. keywords: transmission network, semi-invariant, Gram-Charlier series, stochastic load flow   0 引言 准确的潮流计算有助于保障电网安全可靠运行。由于输电网存在众多不确定因素，若采用确定性潮流计算方法，不但计算量大，而且很难全面反映输电网的运行情况。随机潮流计算是解决上述问题的有效方法，它运用概率统计来处理输电网中的不确定因素，能全面、准确地揭示输电网运行状况，并能及时发现输电网中存在的问题，进而为输电网运行规划、可靠性分析以及安全稳定分析提供更有价值的信息。 目前，随机潮流分析方法主要有蒙特卡罗法[1-2]和卷积法[3-4]。蒙特卡罗法计算结果