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Creditor Participation in European Bank RestructuringsA Corner Turned ? Directorate General CompetitionEuropean Commission BrusselsJanuary 23, 2014 Hans-Joachim Dübel Finpolconsult, Berlin What have we done?8 Bank Sample * Source: Finpolconsult. Creditor participation ratios increasing over time , however outliers: Amagerbanken an early case (Fall 2010) with senior unsecured creditor participation, Note: Ireland was not permitted to pursue same approach, Dexia a late case (Nov/Dec 2012) bailing out juniors, months after Spain. Estimated Private Sector Involvement in Capital Gap Financing BailoutIreland/Denmark Guaranteed Current Bondholders, Meanwhile in the U.S. .. * “I showed up at Hank’s office at ten, still not knowing what the meeting was about… it was an ambush. They told me they wanted me to publicly announce that the FDIC would guarantee the liabilities of the banking system. It was an overreach of the worst sort, and there was no doubt on my mind that Tim Geithner was the instigator. On the following Friday, October 10, I sent Hank a counterproposal. We would guarantee the newly issued debt of the banks we insured at 90 percent of the face value. Current bondholders did not need our protection.” Sheila Bair ‘Bull by the Horns’ BailoutLME as a Bailout Vehicle * Source: Finpolconsult. Buybacks/swaps (LME) and calls are popular bailout instruments. Understood by very few in government, high fees for investment banks. Basel II-III arbitrage (increase in core tier 1decrease in sum of tier 1 and tier 2). Dexia S.A. Junior Debt Structure Bail-out and Basel III ArbitrageLaiki Bank Subordinated Bond LME  * Source: Laiki Bank Reporting, Finpolconsult. BailoutCan Greece Afford These LME? Sources: bank reporting, Finpolconsult LME deal analysis. Is offering between 40 and 60% in cash ‘fair burden sharing’??government recap effectively replaces some 70% of GGB losses, Once government is invested in shares, subordinated debt investors e