Predicting LTE Throughput Using Traffic Time Series.docVIP

Predicting LTE Throughput Using Traffic Time Series 　　Abstract ：Throughput prediction is essential for congestion control and LTE network management. In this paper， the autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） model and exponential smoothing model are used to predict the throughput in a single cell and whole region in an LTE network. The experimental results show that these two models perform differently in both scenarios. The ARIMA model is better than the exponential smoothing model for predicting throughput on weekdays in a whole region. The exponential smoothing model is better than the ARIMA model for predicting throughput on weekends in a whole region. The exponential smoothing model is better than the ARIMA model for predicting throughput in a single cell. In these two LTE network scenarios， throughput prediction based on traffic time series leads to more efficient resource management and better QoS. 　　Keywords：ARIMA; exponential smoothing method; throughput prediction 　　1 Introduction 　　In recent years， there is a trend towards users accessing the Internet from a variety of applications and without restriction in terms of geographic location. This has resulted in an exponential increase of wireless traffic. In 2012， global wireless data traffic grew 70 percent year on year [1]. Thus， mobile network operators have to make a use of limited resources to meet ever?increasing traffic demands. To plan and run networks efficiently， it is important to understand the statistical characteristics of data traffic by analyzing the real traffic. 　　In [2]， the authors use the throughput measured from a real?work cellular network to statistically model time?varying throughput per cell and the distribution of instantaneous throughput per cell over different cells. The proposed statistical models can be used to simulate the time?varying and location?varying throughput of cells. In [3]， the authors analyze several widely accepted throughput network?performance