COMAP zx【DOC精选】.doc

For office use only T1 ________________ T2 ________________ T3 ________________ T4 ________________ Team Control Number41024 ? Problem ChosenA For office use only F1 ________________ F2 ________________ F3 ________________ F4 ________________ Battle with Ebola Team #41024 February 10, 2015 Summary The world medical organization announces that they have developed drugstore which can cure Ebola. So it is urgent to us?clinically. For the problem A, at first we should set up the S-I-R model for forecasting the spread of Ebola, and get the ratiobetween cure rate per day and contact rate per day by genetic algorithm. According to the number of Ebola patients, we can get that the Ebola patients is about 22780 on February 11,2015 through the spread model. The advanced patients will die in about 7 days, so we can forecast the total number of death from February 11 to February 18. That is to say, the advanced patients are 139 and 13743 patients can get the urgent drugs. For the problem B, a large number of drugs and vaccines need to be delivered, and we can make China and America as the manufacturing base according to the practical condition, and then we transport the drugs and vaccines by the transport airplane on service. According to the distribution curve of case in the cities designed by the WHO together with running time for the trucks driving from one infected city to another, we can simplify it as an undirected graph. And then we use the method of exhaustion to get a matrix of distance between those cities. In order to meet the thresholdand the requirement of using less delivery points, we build the 0-1 programming model, and then use lingo to get the 5 delivery points of 3 countries. According to the time process and time threshold, the patients of the three countries and susceptible population will get medicine before 5 O’clock February 12, 2015. For the problem C, for forecasting the develop trend of disease after distributing the dr