江浙沪地区夏季降水时空变化特征研究.docVIP

江浙沪地区夏季降水时空变化特征研究 　　摘要：利用50年江浙沪地区30个气象基准台站的逐日降水资料，采用线性回归分析、Mann-Kendall（M-K）趋势和突变分析、Morlet小波分析、GIS技术和EOF分解技术分析和研究了1961-2010年江浙沪地区降水时空变化特征。结果表明，江浙沪地区50年来夏季降水量呈现出一个总体上升的趋势，上升幅度8月7月6月；对江浙两省夏季降水量距平进行EOF分解，发现江浙地区降水量距平总体呈现出一致的增加趋势，江苏省降水距平场呈“西北-东南”向分布，浙江省的降水距平场呈“东北-西南”向分布；江浙沪地区降水量和各月降水量均有3年左右的振荡周期，此外还各自存在3～8年不等的振荡周期，16年以上的年代际周期不显著。 　　关键词：江浙沪地区；降水量；时空分布；EOF分解；Morlet小波分析 　　中图分类号：P426.6 文献标识码：A 文章编号：0439-8114（2016）14-3581-06 　　DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2016.14.012 　　Abstract： Basing on the daily precipitation data of 30 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010 of Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai area， the temporal and spatial distribution of summer rainfall in Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai area was analyzed by the linear regression analysis， Mann-Kendall（M-K） trends and mutation analysis， Morlet wavelet analysis， GIS technology and EOF analysis. The results showed that， in 50 years， summer precipitation in Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai area presented an overall trend. Furthermore， the growth of precipitation in August was faster than in July， the growth of precipitation in July was faster than in June. Using spatial decomposition of summer rainfall anomaly by EOF， it was shown that precipitation anomaly presented a consistent increase general trend in Jiangsu-Zhejiang area. The precipitation anomaly field in Jiangsu province presented the distribution of northwest to the southeast. The precipitation anomaly field in Zhejiang province presented the distribution of northeast to the southwest. Annual precipitation and monthly precipitation in Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai area had an oscillation period of about 3 years. Besides， these regions existed the oscillation period from 3 years to 8 years independently. However， the period more than 16 years was indistinctive. 　　Key words：Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai area； precipitation； temporal and spatial distribution； EOF； Morlet wavelet 　　在全球变暖的大背景下，气候变化对人类的影响受到了广泛的关注。降水是衡量气候变化的重要因素之一，是农作物生长和发育必不可少的客观条件，其变化对于人类的生产、生活有着重要的影响。 　　20世纪中叶