Planning the Petroleum Sector UWI St规划的石油部门UWI ST. Augustine.pptVIP

The Petroleum Industry and the Economy Some thoughts on meeting the challenges of the 21st Century Gregory McGuire Presentation Outline Introducing the Works of Trevor Farrell Assessing the Current Context Farrell’s Themes and Industry Evolution. Ideas on the Future Farrell’s Major Concerns Planning Capability in the Energy Sector Engaging MNC and Technology Acquisition National Ownership Technological Capability and Industrial Policy Some Early Conclusions of Farrell Oil industry has failed to provide Trinidad with the development one might have expected.(1974) Failed to play role of dynamic sector –weak productive linkages with rest of the economy Venturing downstream (Plastics etc) remains a option to be explored Some Early Conclusions of Farrell Resource based industrialization was misleading because : Supply side approach to the definition of what is to be produced Static comparative advantage is easily lost.( 1988) Planning is a poorly developed function in the Caribbean (1980) Some Early Conclusions of Farrell A technological capability still does not exist over a whole range of activities necessary for running the oil industry .( 1979) The country clearly had the worst of the deals in the two petroleum nationalizations of the early seventies due inpart to psychological weaknesses of negotiators and poor planning. ( 1976) Some Early Conclusions of Farrell In the development of the JV at Point Lisas the local strategy was too narrowly focused on getting the plants built rather than acquiring technological capability. ( 1986) Assessing the Context International and Local Current Global Trends and Issues Developed world not driving demand growth but could drive demand destruction Reduced Transnational Company role in favor of National Oil Companies Emerging supply sources give no assurance of supply stability Increasing commoditization of gas and LNG The Power of NOCs Supply Dynamics LNG Commoditization Oil Prices Which way ? Rising