The Economic Demographic Impact of HIVAIDS in 经济amp在艾滋病人口的影响.pptVIP

The Economic  Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa HEARD The Health Economics HIV/AIDS Research Division University of Natal, Durban www.und.ac.za/und/heard Presentation Structure HIV/AIDS in South Africa The Demographic Impact Economic Impact Social Impact The Impact on Democratic Governance Summary and Conclusions An action agenda HIV/AIDS in South Africa Provincial HIV prevalence:Antenatal clinic attendees HIV prevalence by age groupANC attendees, South Africa HIV Positive South AfricansA projection Demographic Impact A model of futureAIDS and non-AIDS Deaths Forecast Mortality Projected AIDS Orphans Economic Impact Pathways to Economic Impact Individual level Incubation period 5-8 years from infection until the onset of AIDS very little economic impact during this time AIDS Period of escalating illness Ability to work is reduced The cost of care increases Household level Due to the sexual nature of transmission often more than one household member is infected. Infections are concentrated among the primary carers and earners Double impact of reduced income and increased costs of care Household level cont.…. Less money available for other consumption Increased need for care diverts time and effort from other tasks children, often girls, may be removed from school to provide care or generate income Death(s), often multiple, lead to funeral costs which are usually large Disaving may result Labour Market AIDS impacts on sexually / economically active population AIDS related illness leads to: reduced productivity due to absenteeism, high turnover etc AIDS related death leads to: change in labour force and labour participation change in age structure of labour force change in available skills and experience Company costs Consumer Markets The absolute number of consumers will be reduced from what it would have been The age structure of the market will change The structure of demand will also change e.g. increase in demand for medical good