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The End of the First Half of the Age of Oil上半年石油时代的结束
The Age of Oil - Beginning of the End? by Colin Campbell and Jerry Gilbert ASPO IRELAND BARRELMORE LTD www.peakoil.ie Do we really appreciate our oil? Prices (per pint) Gasoline: $0.30 Milk: $1.00 Bottled Water: $1.50 Orange Juice: $0.50 Cappuccino: $15.00 Daily Consumption (per person) Food 2,300 k cal Oil-based energy 100,000 k cal Why we need to know Oil and Gas now dominate our lives: 40% of traded energy is oil 90% transport fuel is oil Trade depends on transport Fuels much electricity generation Critical for agriculture Fuels the tractor, transports the produce Basis for synthetic nutrients, pesticides Why is there Doubt? Most of world’s remaining oil is in the Middle East, under Government control Strong reserves vital to their economies, admitting declines seen as sign of weakness Oil companies regard reserves data as commercially secret Won’t give us information which might lead to a move away from hydrocarbons dependency Archaic Reporting Standards US SEC refuses to accept current technology Outline 1. Geological Reality “You have to find it first” 2. Discovery and Production start and end Growth is followed by decline 3. Dangerous Confusion 4. Consequences and - perhaps - solutions Petroleum Geology (in two minutes!) N.W EuropeOil GeneratingZones-Where oil is and where it is not A Fixed Quantity Oil was formed in the geological past We can’t “grow” more Are we Running Out? – We started running out with the first barrel! …but the last barrel is far in the future The important fact is – Production decline begins when half reserves are gone Depletion is Easy to Understand As every beer drinker knows: the glass starts full, and ends empty the quicker you drink it, the sooner it’s gone The same principle applies to oil and gas How has this reality been concealed ? It is so obvious - yet to many it is a devastating realisation
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