The Flat Horizon Problem Nanotechnology平面地平线问题纳米技术.pptVIP

The Coming Nanotechnology Revolution Not just new products — a new means of production Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing systems — exponential proliferation Accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid prototyping Affects all industries— general-purpose technology Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost — economic discontinuity Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption Impacts will cross borders — global transformation BIG STEPS in Economic, Social, and Political History BIG STEPS in Economic, Social, and Political History Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves Not Steps, but S-Shaped Curves 1885: No such thing as automobiles or airplanes. The British Empire will last forever. Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King will be leaders for decades to come. The Soviet Union and the Cold War will last forever. Current socio-political conditions and structures will last forever. 2005: The idea that nothing really changes… It’s simple to see how wrong this is, but it’s easy to slip into. As for nanotechnology’s transformative and disruptive impacts, we’re on the roller coaster heading toward the big climb. Progress is occurring every day, taking us closer, even if we don’t notice the gradual incline. Soon, however, the curve will sharpen and take us rapidly into a future for which we may not be prepared. Computers Time Change Automobiles Railways Steam Engines Time Change Time Change Time Change Time Change Societal Impacts Time Industrial Revolutions Societal Impacts Time (Measured in decades) Industrial Revolutions Societal Impacts Time (Measured in YEARS) Nanotechnology Revolution Societal Impacts Time Accelerated Impacts Industrial Revolutions Molecular Manufacturing Revolution Societal Impacts Time The Next Big Step Steam Engines Computers Railways Automobiles (Middle Ages) Societal Impacts Time Steam Engines Computers Railways Automobiles (Middle