Three Eras of Technology Foresight Europa三代技术预见欧罗巴.pptVIP

Three Eras of Technology Foresight Harold A. Linstone University Professor Emeritus of Systems Science Portland State University Linstoneh@ TECHNOLOGY 1. The Industrial Era 1800-1970 2. The Information Era 1970-2024 Computers Communications Networks 3. The Molecular Era 2024-2080 Biotechnology Nanotechnology Materials Science The Agricultural Era U.S. farm labor force 1790: 90%; 1970 4% K WAVES 1800-2025 GlocalizationLocal Global Media facebook, desktop publishing ? Technology Distributed (internet) ? Religion small sects ? Conflict individual can incite protests “Everyman as Faust” ? Governance tribalism, separation ? Corporations product customization – in sales: Amazon, Netflix - in manufacturing.: 3D printing CNN, giant media conglomerates Centralized (coal, oil, nuclear energy) quasi-global “Islamic nation” social networks can rapidly spread and amplify local to global scale integration (EU) global markets -McDonald, Starbucks New Concepts 1. Complexity science – nonlinear complex adaptive systems (CAS) Phase states: stable, stably oscillating, chaotic with predictable boundaries, and unstable Many interacting elements (agents), simple rules agents interact locally (cooperating/competing) - their behavior cannot be decomposed result: self-organizing patterns and emergence A cascade of S curves representing major technological shifts New Concepts 2. Multiple perspectives To bridge the gap between models and the real world T: the technical perspective O: the organizational/institutional perspective P: the personal/individual perspective Each offers insights not attainable with the others. O and P vital for link to action. T