THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWLEVEL WIND SHEAR雷暴和低层风切变.pptVIP

THUNDERSTORMS AND WIND SHEAR Presentation provided by, National Weather Service Louisville OUTLINE Basic thunderstorm mechanics Wind shear How do we forecast wind shear? Preparation (examples in TAFs) Summary The Thunderstorm Thunderstorm Stages Thunderstorm Hazards Icing Lightning IFR and LIFR conditions Turbulence/Wind shear Wind Shear What is turbulence? Wind currents that vary greatly over short distances What is wind shear? A change in horizontal wind speed and/or direction with height Two types of wind shear Convective wind shear Non-convective wind shear Convective Wind Shear Convective wind shear Also known as microburst Short-lived, ground-based, small-scale event Associated with thunderstorms Will be included in any TAF if: Thunderstorms are expected at or in the vicinity of the airport MICROBURST LIFE CYCLE Microburst Microburst Non-convective Wind Shear Non-convective wind shear Also known as low-level wind shear (LLWS) Longer-lived, large-scale velocity change with height Usually associated with nocturnal low-level jet LLWS will be included in any TAF if: One or more PIREPs are received that include LLWS within 2,000 feet of surface, at or within vicinity of airport, causing an air speed loss or gain of 20 knots or more Wind shear of 10 knots or more per 100 feet in a layer more than 200 feet thick are expected/reported at or within vicinity of airport Non-convective Wind Shear 1,000 feet 500 feet Surface Forecasting Wind Shear How are we forecasting microbursts? Severe: greater than or equal to 50 knot gusts Strong: roughly 30-40 knot gusts Average: roughly 20 knot gusts How are we forecasting LLWS? If winds will be 40 knots in lowest 2,000 feet with surface winds 10 knots ( 30 knot change) If wind direction will be 60 degree difference between the surface and 2,000 feet Question: how does this criteria suit you? Would you like to see more liberal criteria? Forecasting Wind Shear What can we use? For convective win