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Potential impact of a ventilation intervention for influenza in the context of a dense indoor contact network in Hong Kong.pdf

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Potential impact of a ventilation intervention for influenza in the context of a dense indoor contact network in Hong Kong.pdf

Science of the Total Environment 569–570 (2016) 373–381 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Science of the Total Environment journal homepage: /locate/scitotenv Potential impact of a ventilation intervention for in?uenza in the context of a dense indoor contact network in Hong Kong Xiaolei Gao a, Jianjian Wei a,?, Benjamin J. Cowling b, Yuguo Li a a Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China b WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China HIGHLIGHTS ? A dual-contact (close contact and airborne contact) network was constructed. ? Effect of control strategies was evaluated at the community level. ? Important role of building ventilation in in?uenza control was revealed. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT article info Article history: Received 5 April 2016 Received in revised form 21 June 2016 Accepted 21 June 2016 Available online 25 June 2016 Editor: D. Barcelo Keywords: Building ventilation Urban contact network In?uenza Partially airborne route abstract Emerging diseases may spread rapidly through dense and large urban contact networks. We constructed a simple but novel dual-contact network model to account for both airborne contact and close contact of individuals in the densely populated city of Hong Kong. The model was then integrated with an existing epidemiological susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model, and we used a revised Wells-Riley model to estimate infection risks by the airborne route and an exponential dose-response model for risks by the contact and droplet routes. A potential outbreak of partially airborne in?uenza was examined, assuming different proportions of transmission through the airborne route. Our results show that building ventilation can have signi?cant effects in airborne transmission-dominated conditions. Moreover, even when the airborne route only contributes 20% to the tot