aa2035-OperationsManagement课件.pptVIP

* * * Session 27 Operations Management * Beta Distribution: The Probability Distribution of Activity Times Session 27 Operations Management * Activity Expected Time and Variance Mean, “expected time” TE = (a + 4m + b)/6 Standard deviation, ? ? = (b-a)/6 Variance ?2 = [(b-a)/6]2 Session 27 Operations Management * 95% 90% Levels If we replace 99% with 95% or 90% levels Activity duration to be ≤ a has 5% probability Activity duration to be ≥ b has 5% probability Activity duration to be ≤ a has 10% probability Activity duration to be ≥ b has 10% probability Session 27 O