基于组合权重及改进可拓原理的电力变压器部件.doc

基于组合权重及改进可拓原理的电力变压器部件 风险等级评估* 詹翔灵, 赵蓓蓓, 赵一名, 王亚运, 谢庆, 徐玉琴 （华北电力大学，河北 保定 071000） 摘要：电力变压器在全寿命周期质量管控过程中，通常会因为重点不明，导致不必要的人力物力的浪费。本文在统计分析的基础上，把电力变压器划分了七个部件，建立比较完善的风险等级评价体系。通过引入组合权重及改进可拓物元评估法，将风险等级评估与定量分析结合起来，减少了人为主观因素的影响，合理的解决了评估过程的不确定性及模糊性，同时改善了传统可拓理论依靠最大隶属度原则导致结果不准确的缺陷。所得结果，对全寿命周期电力变压器质量管控有一定的指导意义。 关键词：电力变压器；风险等级评价体系；组合权重；改进可拓物元评估法 中图分类号：TM933 文献标识码：B 文章编号：1001-1390（2015）00-0000-00 The risk level evaluation of power transformer parts based on combination weighting and extension theory Zhan Xiangling, Zhao Beibei, Zhao Yiming, Wang Yayun, Xie Qing, Xu Yuqing (School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071000, Hebei, China) Abstract: The process of power transformer quality control in whole life cycle will lead to unnecessary waste of resources, usually because the key is unknown. On the basis of statistical analysis, this paper divides the power transformer into seven parts and builds a comparatively perfect risk level evaluation system. Through the introduction of entropy and improved extension matter-element evaluation method, we integrate the risk level assessment with quantitative analysis to reduce the influence of subjective factors. It is a reasonable solution to the uncertainty and fuzziness of the evaluation process, meanwhile, it improves the traditional extension theory defects relying on the maximum membership degree principle which lead to the result inaccurate. The component risk sorting has a certain guiding significance for the whole life cycle power transformer quality control. Keywords: power transformer, risk level evaluation system, combination weight, modified extension matter-element evaluation method0 前 言 电力变压器是电力系统核心设备之一，其健康水平关系到整个电网系统的安全稳定。变压器结构复杂，将变压器结构分解，并依次对各部分进行风.险评估，有利于提高变压器检修与维护水平，对降低变压器故障发生机率具有重大的意义[1]。 在以往的质量管理中，通常以故障率为依据，优先考虑故率高的部件，对引起的损失、修复时间等因素考虑不够全面[2-3]，并且缺乏比较客观有效的指标权重确定方法。 本文通过建立科学全面的评估体系，引入组合权重法进行权重判断，减少主观因素的影响，结合可拓综合评估方法[4-6]，得到各部件的风险等级进