应用回归分析期末赵玢琳10212681.docxVIP

《 应用回归分析 》 论 文 题目: 基于统计分析的医疗就诊人数探讨 姓 名 赵玢琳 学 院 理学院 专 业 数学与应用数学 班 级 2010214101班 学 号 班内序号 39 2012年12月25日 基于统计分析的医疗就诊人数探讨 【摘 要】 本文主要应用统计回归的方法，分析影响医疗就诊人数的主要因素，并借助SPSS软件得出拟合模型。在筛选变量与修正模型后，得出医疗就诊人数主要与居民工资、医疗机构总数、环境噪声指数三方面因素成线性关系的结论，并针对结论对政府决策和医疗配置改进提出建议。 本文的数据来源为《深圳统计年鉴2011》。在模型构建阶段，通过显著性分析和逐步回归相结合的手段增选变量。尝试对全模型和简化模型的残差做出解释，考察了异方差和自相关现象的存在性。并着重分析了异常点及变量间的多重共线性，对出现的严重多重共线性，本文采用主成分回归消除共线性并得出最后的拟合模型。 在解释模型阶段，结合问题背景对模型的合理性做出解释，并分析了模型中部分偏离实际现象产生的原因。 在论文的最后，还给出了本次回归分析的心得体会，强调了有序进行研究、多方法结合和联系实际的重要性。 关键词：医疗就诊 残差分析 异常点 共线性诊断 主成分回归 The discussion on medical attendance based on statistical analysis [Summary] This article applied statistical regression to analyze the main factors influencing medical attendance and used the SPSS software to the regression model. After the variables selection and model correction, the article drew the conclusion that medical attendance has a linear relationship with the total number of residents wages, medical institutions and environmental noise index mainly. Then it put forward a proposal about government decisions and configured medical improvements on this conclusion. The data source for the article is Shenzhen statistics yearbook. During the model fitting, it combined significance analysis and stepwise regression to select variables. Also, it tried to explain the residuals of full model and reduced model, and investigated the existence of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. Moreover, the article analyzed the outliers and multicollinearity around the variables. For the serious multicollinearity, the article used principal component regression to delete it and got the final model. As for the explanation of model, the article gave a reasonable explanation based on the problem background and tried to find the reasons why there were some parts beyond the actual phenomenon. In the final, the article talked about the work experience, stressing the import