博弈论How Do We Play Games.ppt

How Do We Play Games? Night1 : simultaneous move games Nash equilibrium Night2 : sequential move games Subgame perfect Nash equilibrium Night3 : Advanced topics进阶话题 Continuous game连续对策 Bounded rationality有限理性 Fairness公平 How Do We Play Games? Help you to understand how people make strategic decisions when playing games. Another title : A Brief Intro to Game Theory. 博弈理论简介 Problem-centric approach.问题导向讲解 Need curiosity and mathematical thinking. Require little math(some probability plus some calculus in Nignt3)概率论和微积分 同时决策博弈 Simultaneous move games PRISONERS DILEMMA囚徒困境 Two suspects are arrested. The police lack sufficient evidence to convict the suspects , unless at least one confesses. The police hold the suspects in separate rooms , and tell each of them three possible consequences. If both deny : 1 month in jail each. If both confess : 6 months in jail each. If one confess and one denies The one confesses : walk away free of charge.无罪释放 The one denies : serve 12 months in jail. PRISONERS DILEMMA -1 , -1 -12 , 0 0 , -12 -6 , -6 Player2 Deny confess Deny Confess Player1 STRICTLY DOMINANT严格优势 Confess is a strictly dominant strategy 绝对优势策略for player1, as it always leads to the best payoff among all his strategies , independent of player2s strategy. Confess is also a strictly dominant strategy for player2. PRISONERS DILEMMA -1 , -1 -12 , 0 0 , -12 -6 , -6 Player2 Deny confess (dominant) Deny Confess (dominant) Player1 PRISONERS DILEMMA In Prisoners Dilemma , individual strategic optimization lead to a lose-lose situation. (deny , deny)leads to better payoff than (confess , confess). Such a result is stable : no player has incentive to change the strategy. When there is a strictly dominant strategy , a player can safely remove all other strategies. This makes it easy to predict the game outcome. STRICTLY DOMINATED绝对劣势 Most games do not have strictly dominant strategies. We can look for strictly dom