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Relationship between sea level and climate forcing by CO2 on geological timescales Gavin L. Fostera,1 and Eelco J. Rohlinga,b aOcean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, Southampton SO14 3ZH, United Kingdom; and bResearch School of Earth Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia Edited by Mark H. Thiemens, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA, and approved November 28, 2012 (received for review September 18, 2012) On 103- to 106-year timescales, global sea level is determined largely by the volume of ice stored on land, which in turn largely re?ects the thermal state of the Earth system. Here we use observations from ?ve well-studied time slices covering the last 40 My to identify a well-de?ned and clearly sigmoidal relationship between atmospheric CO2 and sea level on geological (near-equilibrium) timescales. This strongly supports the dominant role of CO2 in determining Earth’s climate on these timescales and suggests that other variables that in?uence long-term global climate (e.g., topography, ocean circulation) play a secondary role. The relation- ship between CO2 and sea level we describe portrays the “likely” (68% probability) long-term sea-level response after Earth system adjustment over many centuries. Because it appears largely inde- pendent of other boundary condition changes, it also may provide useful long-range predictions of future sea level. For instance, with CO2 stabilized at 400–450 ppm (as required for the frequently quoted “acceptable warming” of 2 °C), or even at AD 2011 levels of 392 ppm, we infer a likely (68% con?dence) long-term sea-level rise of more than 9 m above the present. Therefore, our results imply that to avoid signi?cantly elevated sea level in the long term, atmospheric CO2 should be reduced to levels similar to those of preindustrial times. Sea-level change is one of the most signi?cant and long-lasting consequence