淺谈中国保费收入与经济增长的关系专业论文.docVIP

本科毕业论文(设计) 论文题目： 浅谈中国保费收入与经济增长的关系 学生姓名： 学 号： 专 业： 班 级： 指导教师： 完成日期： 2014年 5 月 25 日 浅谈中国保费收入与经济增长的关系 内 容 摘 要 随着国民收入的提高与社会经济的发展，居民面临的风险不断增大，对保险产品的需求不断提高。经济增长推动了保险业的发展。同时，保险业的发展也促进了经济的增长。在当前的经济形势下，欧债危机、房地产市场不景气及通货膨胀率较高等因素增加了我国经济形势的不确定性。我国保险业该如何发展？能否满足国民的需求？ 本文利用1997-2013年保费收入和GDP数据，运用一元线性回归，通过对自相关的修正，建立无截距项回归模型，并根据该模型进一步预测了“十二五”期间我国保险业发展情况。最终预测在2015年我国保费收入低于政府工作报告的预期，达到2.3万亿。 关键词： 经济增长 保费收入 国内生产总值 一元线性回归方程 自相关  Discussion on relationship between Chinese premium income and economic growth Abstract The development and improvement of national income and social economy, make the residents faced the increasing of risk.Correspondingly,the demand for insurance products continue to improve; Economic growth, promotes the development of the insurance industry. At the same time,The development of the insurance industry in promoting economic growth can not be ignored.The European debt crisis, the real estate market slumping and inflation rate are higher factor increasing our country economic situation of uncertainty. How the insurance develop in our country? Can it meet the need of nation? By using the premium income and GDP data of 1997 to 2013 and taking advantage of simple linear regression,the author forms the non-interceptive regressive model in this paper. And then the developmental situation of insurance industry during the period of Twelfth Five-Year will be forecasted according to the model.The expected premium income will be lower than the expectation of that by report on the Work of the Government,which will be reached 2.3 trillion in 2015. Key words：Economic growth Premium income GDP self-correlation The linear regression 目 录 一、经济增长与保费需求的概述 1 （一）经济增长对保费需求的引致效应 1 （二）保险业发展与经济增长内在的关系分析 3 1．经济增长对保