CH3PROBABILITY-商务统计,英文版课件.pptVIP

BEO1106 - Week 3 BEO1106 - Week 3 Business StatisticsBEO 1106 * * WEEK 3 PROBABILITY Reference: Selvanathan et al. (2004), Chapter 4. PROBABILITY THEORY How to deal with uncertainty in a rational and consistent manner? Probability: A numerical measure of the likelihood or chance that a particular event or outcome will occur. Eg. If one token is to be picked from a bag containing 2 red tokens and 3 blue tokens, what is the chance of picking a red token? There are 5 tokens in the bag. 2 of them are red. The chance of picking a red is 2/5 = 0.4 HOW TO ASSIGN PROBABILITIES TO EVENTS? The