Regional expression of Arcticmulti-decadal variability.ppt

Regional expression of Arctic multi-decadal variability Motivation Outline Document Observed Arctic Multi-decadal Variability Regional Examination of Multi-decadal Variability in Arctic Eastern Arctic Sea Ice Extent Displays Multi-decadal Signal and is Decreasing Intermediate Atlantic Water Displays Multi-decadal Variability Long Term Trend Climatically Consistent Regional Divisions Greenland Sea Barents Sea Kara-Laptev Central Arctic E. Siberian/Chukchi Beaufort Sea Canadian Archipelago Greenland SAT Displays Multi-decadal Variability close to N. Atlantic SLP Regions That Display Multi-decadal Variability Regions not displaying Multi-decadal Variability Large amplitude multi-decadal oscillations impacts calculation of trends Large amplitude multi-decadal oscillations impacts calculation of trends Spatial Variability in Arctic Surface Temperature Trends last 20 years: Cooling over Kara Sea? Pacific Decadal Oscillation Arctic Annual Average SAT-Index Correlations Siberian High Recent Changes in Siberian High Siberian High, Arctic SLP, NAO SLP differences between warm and cold decades in the Arctic Annual Average SLP-Index Correlations Summary Multi-decadal variability is more prevalent in North Atlantic sector of Arctic North Pacific displays multi-decadal variability that influences impacts the Alaska sector Siberian High also displays low frequency variability and influences pressure variability in the Arctic Records are short (two realizations) so we need to find analogs in GCMs to study the mechanisms (working on this) Correlations between Indices DJF NAO = SiHi -0.28 (95%) SOI = SiHi 0.26 (95%) AO = SiHi -0.50 (99%) NAO = SiHi : Changing Correlation over time… 1920-59: -0.05 1960-00: -0.29 NAO Relationship to SAT Ice DJF SAT-Index Correlations Similar to Annual * Uma S. Bhatt1, I. Polyakov2, R. Bekryaev3 et al. 1. Geophysical Institute 2. International Arctic Research Institute at Univ. Alaska, Fairbanks AK3. Arctic